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Paul GrahamMicrosoft is Dead
I read Paul Graham's article, and I couldn't quite believe the statements that he was making. I am not really sure where I can start talking about the flaws in the article. Just to take a couple of the most outragous ones.
He links to SnipShot, and calls it a Photoshop competitor. That is not apples to oranges comparisions, it is like comparing a candle flame to the sun. They are both fire, but that is where the parallels ends. Go ahead and reproduce this image using any web based tool. It took me about 30 minutes to do it in PowerPoint. I assume that it would take a compotent Photoshop wizard minutes or less to do it. If such a thing is possible to do in a web based tool, it is going to take so much longer.
The permise that Ajax is the new OS is flawed on many levels. I am writing this on a computer with fast CPU and quite a bit of memory, and I would really like those CPU cycles to do stuff that I want, not interpreted javascript in a browser window to give me something that is similar to what I want.
There is a limited class of applications where Ajax applications makes sense. Gmail has the luck to hit every point on the list. Other applications are simply not viable on the web. I can't imagine an IDE on the web offering even close to the bare-bones functionality of Visual Studio, for instnace, or the ease and power of Outlook.
Let us take something like Word vs. Writely, I want to add an image from the compnay portal to a document that I am writing. In Word, I just copy the image and paste it to word, you can't do that with a web based application. I could go on, but this has been covered quite enough elsewhere.
I should just mention that JavaScript is a really nice language, but the environment that it is running on is not very friendly, and to do things in Ajax takes significantly longer than doing them using WinForms or similar technology.
*cough* *cough* WHAT?!
I guess that being a professional software developer doesn't count as a computer person now, right?
More posts in "Paul Graham" series:
- (10 Apr 2007) Microsoft Is Dead, Take 2
- (07 Apr 2007) Microsoft is Dead
Comments
The only way to bring focus to himself is to make controversial or sensationalist claims.
"What killed them? Four things, I think, all of them occurring simultaneously in the mid 2000s.
The most obvious is Google. There can only be one big man in town, and they're clearly it. Google is the most dangerous company now by far, in both the good and bad senses of the word. Microsoft can at best limp along afterward."
I didn't know google was in the os market, Gmail, there seach engine and there maps don't count as a os.
This guy seems to be a bone head.
He isn't talking about money or market share, I think.
He is talking about influence, I believe, but that is still not even realistic way of looking at things.
"I feel safe suggesting this, because they'd never do it. Microsoft's biggest weakness is that they still don't realize how much they suck. They still think they can write software in house. Maybe they can, by the standards of the desktop world. But that world ended a few years ago."
I don't know what he is using but a desktop is any pc running any os?
maybe he has some super technology from the future that isnt considered a desktop? or is he referring that laptops are the primary use of computers today?
He seems to think that web based applications are what makes the world turn around. The idea is that a computer is something disposable, with the real applications living in the cloud.
Never say never, Ayende. AJAX may not be up to the task, but the RIA technologies are catching up with winforms, and the next gen of them will be even more powerful.
I can easily envision Paint.NET being a click once application.
Does this make it a Rich Internet Application?
We may get to the point where we have client applications that spend a lot of time talking over the network, but this is not what I consider to be an internet application.
You are forgetting the context - he speak as a VC manager.
Today VCs only see web applications as valid solutions.
Thank you for pointing out the article. It was refreshing in terms of perspective and ideas.
And don't be sensible, the guys is talking about school computers ...
The point made here by Harry is prehaps where things will get interesting, the RIA market. Forget the browser, its really about occasionaly connected, rich media applications that can take as much advantage of the host OS as standard application but be as rich in display, media and as interactive as the web (Ajax included). Microsoft are in this market already as are Adobe and a few others. It will be only a matter of time before Google join in (if I was to hazard a guess it will be related to Mozilla when they do).
That is a much more reasonable conclusion, but to even suggest that MS is not part of this game is ludicrous. MS has the biggest programmers population, ignoring that is.. strange.
I smell somebody is trying to create another Internet Boom (and Bang).... There's too much 'fun guys' who see this as a tool to get stock ride up.
Sure I agree a lot of apps can be done online- e.g. something like Microsoft Outlook, even maybe MS Office- but as Ayende said, there are apps which should not be done on web. And considering Ajax as a valid replacement just shows his lack of technical background- like most business people does.
"Today VCs only see web applications as valid solutions."
That is so right on the money.
"Today VCs only see web applications as valid solutions."
Is it possible that Microsoft has succeeded so completely, with Windows, IE, Office, and the middleware they provide for free, that there are just no growth opportunities for anyone else on that platform? Besides open-source and free/gadget-ware that provide a niche alternative/specialization. I think the answer may be yes. It's like the water fish swim in and don't even realize.
Complete domination may not be sexy or hot, but sexy pays only so many bills. Even these arguments are cliche.
Graham's article is about as valid as the guy handing out books saying he's a viable third-party presidential candidate. You may be, this is America, but you better be something revolutionary and amazing. Google Maps, GMail, and Backpack ain't quite that.
Hi,
90% of users are GrandMa's ! I knew they were more and more elders, but this is a scoop !
However I agree we are maybe going to see less dependence on the desktop. Microsoft and Adobe at least are working on SOA offerings that will keep real applications off the browsers but will make an heavy use of Internet based protocols.
I would like to point out that Mozilla already offer a good plateform with their browsers and XUL. They were well ahead but failed to sell it as a serious development platform.
Cheers.
So yet ANOTHER person is proclaiming "Microsoft is dead" and that Linux will take over the world? This is a novel idea.
It's not like I haven't heard this EVERY SINGLE YEAR since like...1995.
My worst fear is that some software companies have already "bought" this true. There are some big players in CRM, BI and ERP business migrating to web.
The problem is that the user experience, of course, is getting worse. Sometime these companies don’t think on how much time the users spend using their application. In ERP, for instance, there some heavy users that spends 6/8 hours using the app.
As you said, can you imagine develop in a web-based IDE? I bet these users are having the same feeling... (Something like a kick in the balls)
CLR/Tools An excellent post from Scott Hanselman on Managing Change with .NET Assembly Diff Tools . As
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