http://ayende.comAyende @ RahienCopyright (C) Ayende Rahien 2004 - 2021 (c) 202660@All, This is taking way too much of my time, just responding to everyone. Thank you for participating in the discussion, comments are now closed http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment151http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment151Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:49:30 GMTMakeTeaNotWar, Do compare the number of casualties in respect to where and how the operation take place. I believe that the number is very low considering the type of conflict that the IDF is dealing with. And I know that the IDF is making all effort to avoid harming innocents. However, that is not always possible. War sucks, I fully agree. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment150http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment150Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:48:41 GMTWaheed, the UK doesn't support Israel's actions against the Palestinians. I think the current government in particular would love to take a more decisive stance against them but they just don't have the guts. Incidentally, there were protests in 18 UK cities at the weekend. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment149http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment149Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:43:40 GMT"Please don't try to nitpick what I am saying." Ayende, you are trying to justify an invasion where 45% of the wounded are women and children. I think nitpicking is entirely reasonable when you come up with utter nonsense like morality is intent (please dont say that you really really deep down believe that) Come on now - you want a reasoned debate then address the holes in your argument......call it nitpicking if you will http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment148http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment148Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:43:11 GMT> First, you cannot seriously say that the cause for the attacks on the Palestinian people are to increase security of the Isreali people. An 8th grade student could clearly understand that it has the opposite effect of just increasing the violence and threat. Make a distinction between intent and practice. The current operation may increase the desire and intent to hurt Israel, but it will decrease the ability to do so. The current situation is not acceptable. Regarding the rest, please take a look at section 51 of the UN charter http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment147http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment147Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:41:44 GMTYou miss the point entirely. I have no problem with talking, we tried that, didn't work. I still see no other alternative being propose to stop rockets being fired on Israel. If you want to talk, maybe you need to consider actually talking, and not turning to violence. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment146http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment146Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:38:42 GMTAyende, I like you and your blog very much but I see the Israel situation from a very different perspective. First, you cannot seriously say that the cause for the attacks on the Palestinian people are to increase security of the Isreali people. An 8th grade student could clearly understand that it has the opposite effect of just increasing the violence and threat. This is clearly understood by the Israeli army, as found in internal Israeli army documents. Second, you say that Hamas is classified as a terrorist organization. No doubt they have performed terrible crimes. But if you look at the UN definition of terrorism: "criminal acts, including against civilians, committed with the intent to cause death or serious bodily injury, or taking of hostages, with the purpose to provoke a state of terror in the general public or in a group of persons or particular persons, intimidate a population or compel a government or an international organization to do or to abstain from doing any act. " This makes Israel one of the leading terrorist state, having invaded and occupied another country and during 30 years performed terrorist activities that are on a completely other magnitude compared to the ones performed by by Palestinian groups like Hamas. In the process destroying thousands of homes, schools, hospitals, desecrating a whole society. Almost every rebel or opposition/liberation force has been classified as a terrorist group by the ones being attacked. In short the practical definitional of terrorism is "terror directed at us or that we don't approve of". I do condemn the suicide attacks as very terrible crimes and I sympathize with the Israeli victims, but what do you expect? to occupy and daily terrorize and humiliate a people, constantly steal their lands (I am talking about the settlements) have affects. Personally I’m very much opposed to Hamas’ policies in almost every respect. However, we should recognize that the policies of Hamas are more forthcoming and more conducive to a peaceful settlement than those of the United States or Israel. So to repeat: the policies, in my view, are unacceptable, but preferable to the policies of the United States and Israel. So, for example, Hamas has called for a long-term indefinite truce on the international border. There is a long-standing international consensus that goes back over thirty years that there should be a two-state political settlement on the international border, the pre-June 1967 border, with minor and mutual modifications. That’s the official phrase. Hamas is willing to accept that as a long-term truce. The United States and Israel are unwilling even to consider it. I hope you don't get offended by my strong views on this conflict, they are just opinions on the facts that I have read and I understand that this conflict can be viewed very differently as an Israeli citizen. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment145http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment145Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:37:36 GMTMakeTeaNotWar, Please don't try to nitpick what I am saying. Shield Wall is a success because if has made life is Israel normal again. You are also missing the part about the IDF continuous operations in the Palestinian cities in the west bank in order to prevent just this sort of thing. There is no need for a new operation, because we are already operating with as much freedom as we want there. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment144http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment144Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:36:36 GMTOren, First, I thought to write a complete response for every statement u come with then I realized something.. THERE IS NO HOPE !! You care ONLY about rockets to stop! Fine, what about other people rights? U don't care about others. It's a Closed/Infinite Loop. You want ONLY what you want and hell to others. and Others will not allow that, SAME AS you won't allow them to defend themselves or their land and values. You talk about talking and negotiation. You never talk or negotiate except in October 1973 and reason is obvious. And I never doubt that you'll fight us, Egypt, again later soon. Then, you'll use same reasons and justifications while fighting. Because we want ONLY what you want. And we know what you want. You came to that land by force and you'll never leave it deliberately. Tell us, Oren, where are you from? When your family came to Palestine? Answer is very simple same as the solution. But, my believe that you've been programmed with wrong instructions during initialization, with respect to you sure. But this is the seed of the conflict. USA and UK supports you because they made it before. They got lost in ocean then found a land they killed original people because they are WILD people!!!! Then they became the americans and original people became Red Indians :) Now, they teach people humanity and democracy !! I can't belame current americans. But, do they think about what their grandfathers did? I doubt but they are proud of being Americans!! They managed to be Americans because they almost kill all original people (only few tribes survived). So either to kill all of Arab and Muslims coz we are obliged to defend our brothers OR to find another Peaceful solution and forget about ur IDF solution. I appreciate you when you talk technically so I'll try not to follow ur political writings or openions. The point that policitally we don't have any other issues but that CLOSED/UNRESOLVED Issue to talk about. So, no use of talking. Right... Morality is not a math, It's something we see & feel while hard to prove or to show for others. Thanks for the space (If you published this). I said what I hoped to say one day. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment143http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment143Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:36:20 GMT> Again, please read Roy's post. You are ignoring quite a few of the developments that happened along the way, and putting your own interpretation for the numbers I did read the post and it really doesn't say anything which contradicts me, nor does it particularly defend the actions of Israel or the people who created it. Are you denying that the land's population was overwhelmingly Arab, not Jewish? Are you denying that Israel's modern population is overwhelmingly composed of immigrants and the children and grandchildren of immigrants? Are you denying that over half the Palestinian population was dispossessed in 1948? http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment142http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment142Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:36:02 GMTAyende, Im sorry this doesnt make sense...you've already stated that numbers are meaningless so the fact that there was "only" 1 incident in 2007 makes no difference. As there was AN incident surely the wall should have not been considered a success and you should have invaded...or have a misunderstood you? Plus Im sure the suicide bomber thought their intent was good so by your own reasoning they are moral (morality == intent) http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment141http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment141Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:33:11 GMT> If they stopped the rockets, they would have a chance to build a place of their own. No, it wouldn't happen overnight, but it could happen in under 5 years. I don't think this is possible in anything short of a century and certainly not without tectonic political upheaval in the Muslim world. Even if it were theoretically possible for an area the size of Gaza to be self-sufficient with 1.5 million residents that breed like rabbits, it's been so devastated by war, rampant corruption and abject poverty that they're always going to be looking over the border at Israel and feeling that they had it all somehow stolen from them. Human nature is always going to kick in and someone is going to capitalize on those feelings to start the whole cycle of violence over again. "Someone" in that context is probably sponsored by Iran. Until you can build Gaza to even an order of magnitude of the economic status of Tel-Aviv, the whole thing is just going to go bad over and over again. So, how do you stop the rockets? I figure that will be the last step after the major Islamic nations turn into multicultural democracies, or Israel gets its first Muslim Prime Minister. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment140http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment140Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:27:45 GMTAgain, please read Roy's post. You are ignoring quite a few of the developments that happened along the way, and putting your own interpretation for the numbers http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment139http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment139Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:27:44 GMTGiovanni, You are putting your own slant on religion http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment138http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment138Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:26:52 GMTAlexis, Look at the situation in March 2003, where there was a bombing just about every other day, or so it felt. Look at the situation in now. The continuous operation of the IDF in the west bank means that there is a far reduced chance for them to act. Just to give you the numbers. Deaths from suicide bombing attacks in Israel. 2002 - 55 incidents killing 220 people 2003 - 25 incidents killing 142 people Here the numbers lies. Most of those killed in suicide bombing in 2003 died in the first few months of the year, before Shield Wall. 2004 - 14 incidents killing 55 people 2005 - 7 incidents killing 22 people 2006 - 4 incidents killing 15 people 2007 - 1 incident killing 3 people I think that I can call this a success. You are also ignoring some other aspects, such as responsibility to act and the need to act. Rockets are easier to launch, harder to construct, harder to move, take more time. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment137http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment137Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:25:49 GMT> This is grossly inaccurate Not really. At the start of the 20th century the area had a tiny Jewish population (less than 5% or around 30,000 people). Around 90% were Muslim Arabs. By 1948 mass immigration had brought the populations to near parity then during the war over 700,000 Palestinians fled. They have never been allowed to return or reclaim their possessions. Since then something like three million Jewish immigrants have arrived from other parts of the world. The UN's own website will confirm this or you can check out the Jewish Virtual Library: [http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/](http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/) http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment136http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment136Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:23:59 GMT@Gabe >this is untrue, actually religion is about beliefs and ideals, if one of the ideals of the religion is the annihilation of all others, well that is what that religion is "supposed to be about". Sorry, "religion" comes from the latin "religare", which means "link back to God" or "bond between humans and gods". You are as far away from the meaning as possible. If something is about annihilation, it is not religion. People often use religion as a reason to justify the worst acts, which is quite crazy in my opinion. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment135http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment135Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:22:24 GMTAyende, How confident are you that your option D - a rerun of the 2002 operations in the West Bank - would end the rocket attacks? You've been clear before, and now, that a reduction in rocket attacks is unacceptable to you: that zero rockets are the only acceptable solution. Wikipedia, citing [http://www.terrorism-info.org.il](http://www.terrorism-info.org.il) , claims that the net effect of these operations was to reduce suicide bombings and Israeli substantially, to 'only' 25 in 2003. I'll gracefully accept correction on these points, because I'm sure you're much better informed than me on details, but my understanding is that - missile attacks are easier to carry out than suicide bombings, because a suicide bomber only acts successfully once and has very limited range; - the rocket attacks are fired by cells, not by an organised force; - some of the attacks are conducted by other organisations than Hamas, including Fatah, and by unaffiliated independents - so the collapse of Hamas would not end the rocket attacks. All this suggests to me that the current course of action isn't very likely to get you your one goal http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment134http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment134Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:15:32 GMTVarm, This is grossly inaccurate. Please see Roy's post about this topic: [weblogs.asp.net/.../...s-of-land-1946-to-2000.aspx](http://weblogs.asp.net/rosherove/archive/2009/01/05/political-the-truth-about-the-palestinian-loss-of-land-1946-to-2000.aspx)http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment133http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment133Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:15:32 GMT"I don't think so, because while morality isn't math, morality _is_ about intent" Intent is by its very nature hugely subjective. You think your intent is good therefore you are moral. Meanwhile someone else thinks your intent is bad therefore they think you are immoral Either way both sides are still equally culpable based on your original premise http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment132http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment132Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:15:24 GMTThe Palestinians had a place of their own until millions of immigrants arrived and got the UN to create them a new country right on top of the Palestinians' land. Over half the Palestinian population fled the resultant violence and have never been allowed home. I think a few people need to remember how all this started and that the refugees and their descendents lost everything - their land, their homes, their possessions and their dignity. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment131http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment131Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:10:21 GMT MakeTeaNotWar, I don't think so, because while morality isn't math, morality _is_ about intent. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment130http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment130Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:08:27 GMTJohn, That wasn't what you stated. You said, how can they stop the IDF action. This is what I responded. If they stopped the rockets, they would have a chance to build a place of their own. No, it wouldn't happen overnight, but it could happen in under 5 years. > The reason no peace has worked for the last four decades is Israel will not give up their security for Palestinian freedom, and Palestine has never been trustworthy enough for Israel to do so. This is a great quote. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment129http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment129Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:06:11 GMT> Let me think, what do they need to do in order to avoid this? > Well, they need to stop attacking us, that is all. And if you ask them, then they'll stop attacking about when Israel pulls out all the settlements and returns to the Green Line, allows Palestinians to freely work on farms around the borders, returns the Golan Heights, pulls down the wall that's inside "Palestinian Territory", removes all the roadblocks that divide the West Bank into little "prisons", stops the blockade on Hamas in Gaza, allows free passage without IDF checks between Gaza and the West Bank, returns all the "political prisoners" and a whole bunch of other things I can't remember right now because I really try not to pay attention to Palestinian propaganda. (Please note I used quotes for stuff that's obvious propaganda) Do you really believe that the IDF would tear down the checkpoints and walls if the rockets stopped tonight? Would they suddenly drop the blockade of a Hamas led government if the rockets ceased? They've given no indication of it in the past so I see no reason the believe that it would happen in the future. The only thing the IDF would do is continue the process of occupation, because to do anything else would give the appearance of cutting and running. The reason no peace has worked for the last four decades is Israel will not give up their security for Palestinian freedom, and Palestine has never been trustworthy enough for Israel to do so. The more Israel puts up checkpoints and walls, the less reason the average Palestinian has to think of Israel as people worth living peacefully with, which means more missiles and more Israeli checkpoints. Of course, underlying the whole thing is some other Muslim nations using Palestine for a proxy war with Israel, which certainly gives Israel no incentive at all to trust anything the Palestinians say or do. Rather nasty catch-22 and frankly there's no quick way out short of one side's population being able to completely subjugate the other, which neither side has the ability to achieve. I really don't see any viable military solution to the problem. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment128http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment128Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:55:58 GMTAyende, Quick question If morality isnt maths i.e numbers aint important and both sides have done bad things surely each side is equally culpable ? http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment127http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment127Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:40:21 GMT> We have been trying to find a peaceful resolution for over two decades now. It doesn't seems to have worked, and I am not willing to wait another two decades to see if it will. The continual expansion of the settlements in the West Bank is just a slow invasion. If Israel is serious about peace it must dismantle them and remove all the settlers. Until it does that it only has itself to blame for its troubles. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment126http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment126Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:30:50 GMT> How do you justify your position in light of the Palestinian desire to not be blown up by the IDF Let me think, what do they need to do in order to avoid this? Well, they need to stop attacking us, that is all. Here we have a very clear and simple plan of action for how to stop the IDF operation. John, We have been trying to find a peaceful resolution for over two decades now. It doesn't seems to have worked, and I am not willing to wait another two decades to see if it will. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment125http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment125Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:27:39 GMT> I don't really care what the historical context is. I want to end rockets on Israel. > Anything else is not relevant, period That's an extremist position to take and closely parallels positions taken by the other side. How do you justify your position in light of the Palestinian desire to not be blown up by the IDF - especially if they decide that "anything else is not important" in the same way you do. "Anything else is not important" is the argument that the end (stopping the missiles) justifies the means (killing of large numbers of civilians), however saying that the end justifies the means is the antithesis of morality. Morality is the argument that the means must be justified no matter how lofty a goal the end is. Palestinians want the IDF and Settlers out of the West Bank. Does that justify their blowing up Israelis? Iraqis want America out of Iraq. Does that justify their blowing up police stations? The Irish wanted the Brits out of Northern Ireland. Did that justify their bombings in London? The Israelis want Hamas out of Palestine. Does that justify the slaughter of civilians when it's unlikely to even achieve the goal? The way to "stop the missiles" is to look at the historical context and find solutions to the historical problems. It's not a quick solution and as Israel doesn't have the capability, manpower or political will to enact a quick solution (complete military subjugation) then deliberately ignoring history means you're simply doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past. How else are you going to understand the grievances (real or imaginary) of the Gazan residents that drives them to wish death on someone else, and having understood them act to remove those issues. On the Northern Border, I wouldn't be so sure about it being quiet. Hezbollah has been rearming (thanks to Iran) and appears to be ready to act if Hamas looks like it's losing. [http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1053014.html](http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1053014.html)http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment124http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment124Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:20:20 GMTShadi, I don't think that I ever said I am objective. I _have_ one goal, and I explicitly stated it. Please refrain from holocaust references, I remind you of Godwin's law and its enforcement. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment123http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment123Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:17:49 GMTCasey, You are still not answer the main question, how to stop rockets from being fired on Israel. There are no rules in the real world, there are only consequences. http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment122http://ayende.com/3796/politics-morality-isnt-math#comment122Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:14:58 GMT